Food security continues to consolidate in most of the pastoral, agropastoral, and marginal agricultural areas after the second successive good rainy season. However, pastoralists in parts of Turkana, Marsabit, and Isiolo remain highly food insecure after poor long rains in these areas. In addition, most of the southeastern and coastal lowlands are moderately food insecure, even after a highly favorable short rains harvest, because a significant proportion of the output was contaminated with aflatoxin while some areas also received poor long rains.
Seasonal deterioration in food security in the pastoral and southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas is likely between July and September, as the lean season typically peaks between August and October. Pastoralists in parts of Turkana, Marsabit, and Isiolo who experienced poor long rains are likely to remain highly food insecure. Food insecurity is expected to worsen for coastal and southeastern marginal agricultural farmers who have lost their crop to aflatoxin poisoning and are faced with low producer prices for the good crop. However, most households will remain moderately food insecure because availability of cereal on the markets, high livestock prices, and increased labor opportunities will cushion income losses.
Significant improvements in food security are expected between October and December for both pastoral and marginal agricultural farm households. Normal short rains are expected to help consolidate pastoral food security, at a much more rapid pace than normal, because of limited migrations at the end of the long rains. Harvests in the grain basket are likely to keep cereal prices down, while livestock productivities should rise. In parts of Turkana, Marsabit, and Isiolo, food security will improve to moderate levels. Food security is also expected to improve significantly in the marginal lowlands, during the more important short rains season, beginning with harvests of short cycle crops, even as some households retain portions of the previous seasons' harvests. However, given household indebtedness because of previous poor seasons and the impact of aflotoxin poisoning, households will remain moderately food insecure.